Conquest enemy capitulation (surrender)

european-war-4.boards.net/thread/5186/conquest-surrender
european-war-4.boards.net/thread/4600/capitals-conquest

These discuss the same topic in terms of Conquest in general. Same ideas were floated about:
Outnumber and overpower your enemies, statistically speaking, and they may surrender.

Well, i trialed out for all conquests but ragnok (not bothered to count cities) and the ratio seems to be 5x. I tried it with exact numbers btw ( was annoying to get) but any lower then 5x they capitulate as i said before. The game probably updated so that forcing enemies to surrender became slightly easier. I think ragnok is the same ratio, if not worse. Like I generally wait till they have less then 20 cities before i attack Omsk to kill them but ill fiddle around with the numbers and see the city ratio before they surrender. By the way, the surrender rate after this point is garunteed i think. After all, i tried it three times and it seemed to work (maybe there is a luck factor involved, but i was too lucky with them surrendering multiple times in a row to come to an incorrect conclusion) 

By the way i trialed ragnok as well and it follows the 5 times rule. Hopefully this will help everyone in clearing any conquest as they can mathematically calculate whether the enemy surrenders or not (its a pain when enemies relocate the capital)

I tested it when the remaining towns were 2, 3, 4 or 5. I don't know if the thresholds would follow a constant progression. If they do, it would take about 56 cities if they have still 8, and about 88 if they have 12

So I am progress to Empire age now, taking Carthage:

Empire Age _ Play as Carthage
Carthage has 22 cities / 30 powers
Arab has 4 cities / 11 powers
Ottoman has 5 cities / 6 powers

Attack Arab first, Arab moves capital. So
Carthage: 23 cities / 30 powers
Ottoman: 5 cities / 6 powers.

Attack Ottoman second, Ottoman moves capital.

Detail of those are in the last 3 pictures: imgur.com/a/6dAOL7M
So more cities at least 5 times your enemies is definitely a good trigger, bit it's not all the trigger, because:
1) In my attack to Arab, I have more than 5 times the cities of Arab, but my power is slightly less than 3 times their power. Result: they move their capital.
2) In my attack to Ottoman, I have 4.5 times the cities of Ottoman, and my power is exactly 5 times their power. Result: they move their capital.

aplayer never mentions power in his research. I incorporate it simply because the rules that he tested doesn't work. It's like ET that they changed it in this recent update.
But either way, just slightly more time, not a big deal. I always finish conquest earlier than the required time for achievement so it's a bit annoying but not big deal for me (As I mainly play conquest for achievement, and don't repeat those if I don't have to).